Managing drawdown (MDD): Why a -50% loss needs a +100% recovery

Drawdown is a number to examine before returns. A trader's survival depends not just on how much was earned, but on how deep a decline the account had to endure.

What are drawdown and MDD?

Drawdown measures how far account equity has fallen from its previous peak. The largest such decline during a specified period is called MDD, or maximum drawdown. The calculation is straightforward.

Drawdown (%) = (current equity − previous peak equity) ÷ previous peak equity × 100

Example If an account rises to KRW 10 million and then falls to KRW 6 million, drawdown is (6 − 10) ÷ 10 = −40%. If it falls further to KRW 5 million, MDD at that point becomes −50%.

If return answers “How much did it earn?”, MDD answers “How far did it fall at its worst?” Two strategies both returning 30% a year carry very different risks if one has an MDD of −15% and the other −60%.

Recovery is asymmetric: -50% requires +100%

Drawdown is especially dangerous because losses and recoveries are not symmetric. Once capital shrinks, a gain of the same percentage does not restore the original amount. The required recovery returns are shown below.

Loss (drawdown)	Return needed to recover principal
−10%	+11.1%
−20%	+25%
−33%	+50%
−50%	+100%
−75%	+300%
−90%	+900%

Example If KRW 10 million loses −50% and becomes KRW 5 million, returning to KRW 10 million requires earning +100%, or doubling, from KRW 5 million. A −50% decline halves the account arithmetically, but the required recovery percentage is twice as large. At −90%, the required gain is +900%, making recovery extremely difficult.

High leverage brings this asymmetry into play faster. The higher the leverage, the more readily a small price move can cause liquidation and a −100% loss. No percentage return can recover from −100%.

Why managing MDD is a matter of survival

The table makes the point clearly: avoiding losses matters more than earning quickly. Deep drawdowns deplete capital and can encourage increasingly aggressive bets to recover, creating a cycle of larger losses. Key tools for keeping drawdowns shallow include:

Position sizing: Limit the amount at risk on a trade to a fixed share of capital, such as 1–2%.
Stop-losses: Decide your exit price before entering so that one loss does not become devastating.
Capital management: Set the maximum acceptable loss relative to your total capital in advance.

Example Limiting each trade's loss to 2% of capital keeps the cumulative loss after 10 consecutive losing trades to about −18%. Someone risking half their capital on one trade can fall −50% after a single mistake, creating a hole that requires +100% to recover.

What to check in practice

When evaluating a strategy or bot, look beyond returns and check the following.

What was the strategy's historical MDD percentage?
Can you psychologically withstand that drawdown? If not, you may give up at the bottom.
How long did it take to recover from the drawdown?

A small historical MDD does not guarantee that future losses will stay within it. Markets can always produce deeper declines than before, and no risk management eliminates losses themselves. Drawdown management is not a promise of profit; it is a defense against being forced out even on the worst days. Survival leaves you able to take the next opportunity.

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