1. Bitcoin's four-year cycle
Bitcoin has experienced major rising and falling cycles at intervals of approximately four years. This pattern is closely associated with the halving.
2. Four stages
1. Accumulation
The bottom region of the cycle. Public attention fades and articles declaring “Bitcoin is dead” proliferate. Smart money, including institutions and whales, buys quietly in this model.
2. Markup
Price breaks previous highs and FOMO begins. Cryptocurrency becomes a popular topic in the news and social media, new participation surges and altcoins also rise sharply.
3. Distribution
The top of the cycle. “This time is different” becomes a familiar phrase. Smart money starts selling while inexperienced investors enter last.
4. Markdown
A crash and prolonged downturn follow. Declines of 80–90% can occur. Projects fail, fraud is exposed and “Bitcoin is finished” headlines return.
3. The guide's March 2026 assessment
📊 Original cycle analysis
The fourth halving took place in April 2024. The guide states that historical cycle highs formed 12–18 months after halvings, and describes March 2026 as the middle to late part of the markup stage. This is the original dated interpretation.
4. Strategies by cycle stage
- Accumulation: Regular DCA purchases; described by the source as the best buying opportunity.
- Markup: Maintain holdings and plan staged profit-taking.
- Distribution: Reduce positions by 30–50% and realize profits.
- Markdown: Build cash reserves for the next accumulation stage.
5. AI trading and cycles
The source presents automated AI trading as operating at any cycle stage: long in rising markets and short in falling markets, seeking returns regardless of direction.
🃏 AI trading across market cycles
AI responds automatically around the clock in rising or falling markets.
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