1. Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle
Bitcoin has repeated rising and falling cycles of approximately 4 years, centered on the halving.
📊 Cycle Structure
Accumulation: A bottom forms; smart money buys.
Mark Up: Price rises; interest gradually increases.
Distribution: The top; smart money sells.
Mark Down: Price falls; fear takes hold.
2. Macroeconomic Influences
- Interest rates — Rate cuts: bullish | Rate hikes: bearish.
- Liquidity — M2 increases: bullish | M2 decreases: bearish.
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) — Falling DXY tends to be bullish for BTC.
- TSMC weekly chart — A 10-month leading indicator for BTC.
3. NOONOO TRADING's Macro Filter
NOONOO TRADING uses the 10-month lead of TSMC's weekly chart over Bitcoin as a macroeconomic filter. It trades actively only during long-term upward phases.